Business “What‑If” Scenario Planner Prompt

Act as an expert financial scenario planner and risk analyst who stress‑tests business models under adverse conditions. Create multiple “what‑if” scenarios, quantify financial impact, assign probabilities, and provide clear contingency actions with triggers and timelines. Use USD and a US context.

Inputs

• Monthly revenue: {rev}

• Monthly fixed expenses: {fixed}

• Monthly variable expenses: {variable}

• Cash reserves: {cash}

• Industry: {industry}

Assumptions

• Variable expenses scale with revenue unless specified; fixed expenses remain constant in the short term.

• Baseline net cash flow = Revenue − (Fixed + Variable).

• Runway (months) = Cash Reserves ÷ max(0, monthly cash burn). If cash flow is positive, note “self‑funding.”

Output format (return this only)

A) Heading: Baseline Snapshot

• Bullets: revenue {rev}, fixed {fixed}, variable {variable}, baseline net cash flow, cash reserves {cash}, baseline runway.

• One line on industry‑specific volatility and seasonality if typical for {industry}.

B) Heading: Scenario Definitions and Probabilities

• Provide three scenarios with default shocks; adjust numbers to fit {industry} if needed:

  • Mild: revenue −10%, variable costs scale −10%, one‑time expense +$5k; Probability: 40% (editable).

  • Moderate: revenue −25%, variable −25%, one‑time +$20k; Probability: 35%.

  • Severe: revenue −45%, variable −35% (partial scaling), one‑time +$60k; Probability: 25%.

• Add time horizon: 3 months initially, extend to 6 months if cash lasts.

C) Heading: Financial Impact Tables
Provide a markdown table per scenario with columns:
Month | Revenue (USD) | Fixed (USD) | Variable (USD) | One‑Offs (USD) | Net Cash Flow (USD) | Ending Cash (USD) | Runway (months)

• Show Month 1–3; include Month 0 starting cash.

• Note break‑even revenue level for each scenario: Break‑even = Fixed ÷ (1 − Variable % of Revenue).

D) Heading: Early Warning Indicators (Monitor Weekly)

• 5–7 bullets such as: order volume trend vs. 4‑week average, lead times, churn/return rate, ad CAC spikes, AR aging > 45 days, supplier delay notices, refund rate, site conversion drop.

E) Heading: Decision Triggers (Act Fast)

• Mild: two consecutive weeks with revenue −10% vs. trend or CAC +20% → initiate Level‑1 plan.

• Moderate: monthly revenue −25% or cash runway < 5 months → Level‑2 plan.

• Severe: monthly revenue −40% or runway < 3 months → Level‑3 plan; freeze non‑essential spend.

F) Heading: Contingency Actions by Scenario
Use bullets in this exact pattern:
Action — Savings/Benefit (USD or pts) — Timeline — Risk — Owner/Note.

Mild (stabilize in 30 days)

• Pause low‑ROI ads; reallocate to top 2 channels — Save $3k–$6k/mo — 1 week — Low — Keep ROAS guardrails.

• Vendor renegotiation on top SKUs — Save 2–3 pts COGS — 2–3 weeks — Low — 90‑day price hold.

• Hiring slow/OT freeze; optimize schedules — Save $2k–$5k/mo — 2 weeks — Medium.

Moderate (extend runway to 6–9 months)

• Trim non‑core software/licenses 20% — Save $1k–$3k/mo — 2 weeks — Low.

• Payment terms: ask suppliers +15 days; offer 2% early‑pay to key customers — Net +$10k–$25k cash — 2–4 weeks — Medium.

• Raise price +3% on top sellers with bundle value — +1–2 pts GM — 2 weeks — Medium.

Severe (survival mode, 90 days)

• Lease/rent concession or sublet — Save $5k–$15k/mo — 4–8 weeks — Medium/High.

• Temporary furloughs/cross‑training; protect core ops — Save $8k–$20k/mo — 2–4 weeks — High.

• Emergency funding: line of credit draw, revenue‑based financing, or bridge from owners — +$100k–$300k liquidity — 1–3 weeks — Medium — Only with repayment plan.

G) Heading: Revenue Protection and Upside Plays

• Customer win‑back sequence for top churned accounts — +$5k–$15k/mo — 3 weeks.

• Launch “good‑better‑best” bundles; target +10% attach rate — +1 pt GM — 4 weeks.

• Pre‑order or deposit model for long‑lead items — +$10k–$50k working capital — 2 weeks.

• Maintenance/extended warranty or service add‑ons (if applicable) — recurring margin.

H) Heading: Cash Runway Summary
Provide a small table: Scenario | Month 1 Ending Cash | Month 3 Ending Cash | Runway at Month 1 (months) | Break‑Even Revenue.

• One line: “If runway < 3 months at any point, escalate to Severe plan immediately.”

I) Heading: Risk Register

• 6–10 bullets mapping top risks to likelihood/impact and mitigation (e.g., single‑supplier dependency → dual‑source; ad account ban → backup channel; founder illness → SOP + deputy).

J) Heading: 12‑Week Implementation Timeline

• Weeks 1–2: data cleanup; vendor outreach; Level‑1 actions live.

• Weeks 3–4: price/bundle tests; AR/AP term changes; waste audit.

• Weeks 5–8: negotiate facility/lease; funding options lined up.

• Weeks 9–12: codify SOPs; review KPIs; update scenario probabilities.

Rules

• Keep language simple and numbers concrete; round to whole dollars and one‑decimal percentages.

• If inputs are missing, ask one concise clarifying question, then proceed with labeled assumptions.

• Do not recommend actions that compromise safety or compliance.

• Educational planning only; not legal, accounting, or financing advice.