Overview
This prompt guides entrepreneurs in accurately estimating market sizes using a bottom-up approach, enhancing their investment appeal. Startups seeking funding will benefit from precise market analysis tailored to their specific product and target audience.
Prompt Overview
Purpose: This analysis aims to provide a detailed market sizing for a subscription box for gluten-free dog treats in the United States.
Audience: Target customers are dog owners who prioritize premium pet food and are likely to subscribe to specialty products.
Distinctive Feature: The bottom-up approach uses specific variables to create a realistic market estimate rather than relying on generic statistics.
Outcome: The analysis will yield the Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for informed investment decisions.
Quick Specs
- Media: Text
- Use case: Market sizing analysis
- Techniques: Fermi estimation, Bottom-Up analysis
- Models: Subscription box
- Estimated time: 1-2 weeks
- Skill level: Intermediate
Variables to Fill
- [INPUT: Region, e.g., "United States"] – Input: Region, E.g., "united States"
- [INPUT: Price, e.g., "$30/month subscription"] – Input: Price, E.g., "$30/month Subscription"
- [Target Customers] – Target Customers
- [Geography] – Geography
Example Variables Block
- [Target Customers]: Dog owners who buy premium pet food
- [Geography]: North America
The Prompt
Act as a Market Research Analyst and Venture Capital Associate. You specialize in “Bottom-Up” market sizing, which investors prefer over vague “Top-Down” estimates. You rely on Fermi estimation logic to build credible numbers from basic assumptions.
TaskEstimate the Total Addressable Market (TAM), Serviceable Available Market (SAM), and Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) for my startup. Do NOT just search for a generic “Global Market Size” number. Instead, calculate it using specific variables (number of users ? price).
ContextMy Product: [INPUT: Product, e.g., “A subscription box for gluten-free dog treats”]
Target Geography: [INPUT: Region, e.g., “United States”]
Target Customer: [INPUT: Customer, e.g., “Dog owners who buy premium pet food”]
Pricing Model: [INPUT: Price, e.g., “$30/month subscription”]
- Definitions: Briefly define TAM, SAM, and SOM in the context of this specific business.
- The Logic Chain (Bottom-Up Math):
Step 1: Estimate total number of [Target Customers] in [Geography]. (Show your logic/sources).
Step 2: Filter for those likely to have the specific problem (SAM).
Step 3: Estimate a realistic Year 1-3 capture rate (SOM).
- The Calculation Table:
TAM ($): (Total Potential Customers ? Annual Price)
SAM ($): (Segmented Customers ? Annual Price)
SOM ($): (Capture Rate ? SAM)
- Sanity Check: Compare this bottom-up number to a known top-down industry statistic (I will search for this if needed) to see if it’s realistic.
Use a table for the final numbers. Show all math formulas explicitly (e.g., 50M users ? $30 ? 12 months = $18B).
Screenshot Examples
[Insert relevant screenshots after testing]
How to Use This Prompt
- [TAM]: Total potential market size estimate.
- [SAM]: Market segment likely to purchase.
- [SOM]: Expected market share capture rate.
- [Target Customers]: Specific demographic for the product.
- [Geography]: Region where the product is sold.
- [Pricing Model]: Subscription price for the product.
- [Capture Rate]: Percentage of SAM expected to convert.
- [Annual Price]: Total revenue from a customer yearly.
Tips for Best Results
- TAM Definition: Total Addressable Market represents the total revenue opportunity available if your product were to achieve 100% market share.
- SAM Definition: Serviceable Available Market is the segment of the TAM targeted by your products and services that is within your reach.
- SOM Definition: Serviceable Obtainable Market is the portion of the SAM that you can realistically capture in the near term.
- Bottom-Up Estimation Logic: Start with the total number of target customers, filter for those with the specific need, and apply a realistic capture rate to estimate your market potential.
FAQ
- What does TAM represent in market sizing?
TAM, or Total Addressable Market, is the total revenue opportunity for a product or service. - How is SAM defined for my startup?
SAM, or Serviceable Available Market, is the segment of TAM targeted by your products or services. - What is the meaning of SOM in market analysis?
SOM, or Serviceable Obtainable Market, is the portion of SAM you can realistically capture. - Why use bottom-up market sizing?
Bottom-up sizing provides more accurate estimates based on specific customer data and realistic assumptions.
Compliance and Best Practices
- Best Practice: Review AI output for accuracy and relevance before use.
- Privacy: Avoid sharing personal, financial, or confidential data in prompts.
- Platform Policy: Your use of AI tools must comply with their terms and your local laws.
Revision History
- Version 1.0 (December 2025): Initial release.